More decision making traps...

Decision Making Traps
- Part 2

Read Decision Making Traps - Part 1

There are many influences on how we live our lives. Our five senses determine what information comes in and what does not. The environment, how we earn,what we learn and how we process information are also powerful influencers.

Here I will outline some more of these powerful, and sometimes invisible, factors that impact us by leading us into decision making traps.

Seeking confirmation

We have a natural tendency to seek out and accept information that confirms what we already know. We also tend to avoid information that contradicts our ideas. This influences not only where we go to get the information, but also how we interpret it. We end up giving too much weight to evidence that supports our viewpoint and too little weight to conflicting information.

There are two things at work here. Both are fundamental to human nature. They are also incredibly strong driving forces. Firstly, we tend to make decisions 'emotionally' and then back them up with rationalizations. And secondly, we like to give more of our attention to things we like then things we dislike.

Now the second one may seem so obvious you might wonder why it's even mentioned. But think of all the people you know who are doing things they don't really want to be doing! And not only that, they have lots of logical and reasonable explanations why this is so.

So they are actually inverting the first of these driving forces as well, making a poor decision and then justifying it. Killing two birds with one stone? More like killing themselves!

So what can you do to ensure that you're not simply seeking confirmation? First of all, don't except confirming evidence without questioning it as well. Have somebody else play devil's advocate, or do it yourself. It is often useful to step into somebody else's shoes and review the situation from a completely different perspective.

And be truthful with yourself about whether you've already made the decision or are still gathering information to make it. In other words,
do you already know deep down what you want and now you just want a reason to justify that?

And as much as you can, avoid asking leading questions so that people give you unbiased information (as much as they can!).

Framing

Because this becomes another tricky area. The frame you use, or the questions you ask, will determine the end result.

Humans are 'risk averse' creatures. We generally don't like to lose things, or to take risks. We will often avoid decisions where there is
a possibility of loss, no matter how small this loss may be.

And most people will accept the decision frame as it is initially presented. When you ask for advice about a decision, people will typically give you alternative solutions. Rarely if ever do they offer an alternative frame.

A way to overcome these decision making traps is to deliberately change the frame of the decision. Consider the decision over a longer timeframe, or ask who else would be affected, or reframe the situation so that there are different gains and losses.

Guessing and predicting

Another of these decision making traps is that of guessing and predicting. With practice, and if there is reasonably quick feedback, we can get good at guessing time, distance, weights and so on. Other things such as the weather, horse races, and the stock market, we tend to be less accurate at forecasting.

Sometimes our physical senses can be fooled. For example, objects in a rear view mirror are often closer than we think. It's more difficult to localize a high-pitched noise then a low-pitched one. In fact, some animals and birds use this to avoid detection.

And other factors come into play when we guess and predict. We may be overconfident, over cautious or we can be 'living in the past'. Lets consider each in turn.

Most people believe themselves to be better at making forecasts and predictions then they actually are. Especially if there's no risk to them!

Overly cautious

And 'just to be on the safe side', we 'err on the side of caution'. We run 'worst-case scenarios', even though the odds of such situations occurring are miniscule.

And by 'living in the past' I mean that big and dramatic events that we've experienced tend to influence our decision making because we consider that it may actually happen again.

Unusual catastrophes often attract a lot of media attention. So we give them a disproportionate amount of importance. Take plane crashes, for example. Plane journeys are actually safer than cars, bikes, or even walking. Yet fear of flying is extremely common. Much moreso than driving or cycling.

Being aware of the assumptions and presuppositions you are using will help to point out some of these decision making traps.

Combinations...

And remember, too, that some of the decision making traps mentioned in this article as well as the last, may work together in compounding a situation.

If you want to learn more about these ideas for yourself, I suggest you pick one at a time. For a few days, look out for examples of where this trap is working. Then pick another of the decision making traps and study it. A good place to start is with advertisements in the various media!

And if you want to know more about the ultimate decision making process, learn about it here...

Read Decision Making Traps - Part 1